Could This Year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Break The Record?
The prediction for this year`s Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on the 1st of June and lasts until the 30th of November, is bad. According to the weather experts, this year`s season could be the worst on record.
Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist, stated that they have predicted that this would be one of the worst Atlantic hurricane seasons.
On the 21st of April, the Earth System Science Center has recently reported that there may be 15 – 24 tropical storms this year. due to the high-temperatures of the world`s oceans, it is predicted that this year`s season could break the record.
The statistical model of Kozar, based on the former work of Mann and Sabbatelli, predicted that there may be 15 – 24 storms on average, i.e. about 20 named storms. The climatological conditions for the North Atlantic oscillation in the following fall and winter, the El Nino-Southern oscillation in fall and late summer, and the anomalies of the sea surface season of the North Atlantic Main Development Region this year are the main assumptions of this prediction.
The predictions may be reduced, i.e. 14 – 23 storms on average if El Nino-Southern oscillation does not develop. Experts think that the Pacific may calm in the new few months, which could prevent the development of El Nino.
Amid the pandemic, it is considered that people do not need additional stress from the Atlantic hurricane season.
According to Schlegilmilch, the additional stress from the Atlantic hurricane season could affect people`s vulnerability. People could not respond to these disasters, which they are not ready for.
He also added that a landfalling disaster could enhance the spread of the virus, indicating that there could be a high transmission of the virus in congregated situations, including shelters, infrastructure with bad power, etc.
We predict one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record (20±4 named storms) | “The 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC Forecast”: https://t.co/MNs6uvpX0Z@Penn_State @PSUClimate @PSUEarth @PSUEMS pic.twitter.com/VfKa89cuNl
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) April 27, 2020
High storm records are largely caused by climate change. High air temperatures and warm oceans contribute to more hurricanes, and other natural phenomena, like droughts, wildfires, and heatwaves.